sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6f29cd572b1caf10f0f3dc31746c1ba4d4c70aca | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x3d942f2e0cf53bfa011093df593ec0389e17c8f0df527f2d20ff5fb69cdac42d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No change ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? | 74,130,010 | 74,130,010 |
ac50257d8753b92c2c6cf2b017a2774a4b1515f9 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x96cdc6021114b3011fb8af9cd11f68d8495c2766090373aaa2f5b464199c2da7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win t... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1? | 74,687,897 | 74,687,897 |
5f41b763ad41a06a9c010ccd851b0add81ba4f7f | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x081187978b08a486d9832b2e8d95b61e7c980ba9ff45a33da98a7c60ab80b58a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jamal R... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | 74,727,240 | 74,727,240 |
970e03c882b05407d862dce7991c47e43f6b168c | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x4da1db6b7614cad6cfa317e93430ad29946f0da8f6a6497f238f460de1e1b0ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jamal Roberts win American Idol season 23? | Event: american-idol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will voter turnout in t... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | 74,727,240 | 74,727,240 |
2a4f5ba20f8c13067dcf43b1b6919a384e84f62e | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xb8c1682b5ba8a6ae3162a86420bb11ec6686eddf63b4c2baacb66be6d6b2686a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jamal Roberts win American Idol season 23? | Event: american-idol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%? | Event: turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1? | 74,727,240 | 74,727,240 |
70f4a9f39225e0d872f3da8c79e0c3893f55d9c5 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xd5117e1dd4307891509df62fde8558f6053aef184a029068ca824bc31301322f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%? | Event: turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%? | Event: turnout-in-2025-polish-presi... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? | 74,727,240 | 74,727,240 |
0197e5b32523f545e0c4b610859c92abbfd1d84b | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x5203e23824656b4493b6d9b99791eb03621401f64d66f853e97b192456842e21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%? | Event: turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-south-kore... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? | 74,912,225 | 74,912,225 |
a51893db74afaed54b1300d6158946db1826fa9c | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xb61463dbe5161018a117a7e778b36d3bd561d2e1637f4c6568995475f0f2fa01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-south-korea-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? | Event: south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1? | 74,912,225 | 74,912,225 |
4d962d458494d62c6435554a6bc307a727f31f57 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x558bbb9554b28c3145d57abfd78840ef4dd534af1221caa59b7cd0a97bb639f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? | Event: south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitc... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8? | 74,929,253 | 74,929,253 |
36100a46715758cf4999b5327df5b5b99881d8dc | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x265293e363cb6c04c523e31674869a80288d77e092d098965401ac5210bcd42e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Materialists" Opening Weeke... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? | 74,969,827 | 74,969,827 |
97163e451b6b2a62b800915833a386313b55638a | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xd3fb6d5a8a798f9abab8026cb40bc9c2229f74cf79357c835f3ab7387278e06e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m? | Event: materialists-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.467497... | yes | 1 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | 74,969,827 | 74,969,827 |
3138a1084f12b4256982fd283ab739c9cdaab395 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xfb2e3c0fa60c6b5b8a507688e7ebb2301a813cd394d5c632fa34e2782af0cb66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m? | Event: materialists-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.4674978464469104e-06
2. Question: Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $85m and $92m? | Event: how-to-train-... | no | 0.717562 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? | 74,969,827 | 74,969,827 |
b797962c02f22ce5875d1aeea7d9f76ee3ebaf08 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x8cfb8bcd197ff5f8fb24bd6098175fbb2ce575d46c65759ea044bd573c652694 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $85m and $92m? | Event: how-to-train-your-dragon-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m? | Event: how-to-t... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-taylor-swift-x-travis-kelce-podcast-on-day-1 | Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1? | 75,217,847 | 75,217,847 |
8647e98b00cfdd215e733f5370041b3af3a18a51 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x3fdcc8acb8def23b90c917ec7bf5f0c7eaca5f805171c874a69248fd5a7f8c4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m? | Event: how-to-train-your-dragon-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999601029235639
2. Question: US military action against Iran before July? | Event: us-military-action-against-iran-be... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8? | 75,235,767 | 75,235,767 |
a3195d874ec3602d05f40fd99c1fe35c344e49df | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x8a5ea53e9be5337fc80c804af2fb51523504bf53e4fc328c09ee35ff934cdc55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US military action against Iran before July? | Event: us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3339621899933184
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 55–60 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8? | 75,235,767 | 75,235,767 |
14f624901ba0f045e32e49329f5d4a2900c7a1c7 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xf7805931745d730e5defef7460c34c4017786bc98394f5e805c5fa36a4d07b43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 55–60 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Choi... | yes | 0.182178 | of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heights-gets-week-1 | Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 20 and 30 million views the first week? | 75,270,934 | 75,777,435 |
f8d103385cba5c69e0ce86b17746ed37eea608d6 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xcfa4e61276514aac26e23c6298ec43124bfc329e261beedef23b576cf2b7615d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Choic... | yes | 1 | length-of-the-next-mrbeast-video | Will the next MrBeast video be between 15 and 20 min? | 75,400,497 | 75,400,497 |
1bbe029323f571d07eb71d28ab91afafc1cebea6 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x1cb45504b53fac2aceb6278b9d0b399898d120b48d4950f2441bb15ade057298 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m? | Event: materialists-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heights-gets-week-1 | Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 10 and 20 million views the first week? | 75,462,209 | 75,462,209 |
6f245e7e401987641fbc4fb95b76ae357d05c587 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x0c7d28659310de1bcffb52f14911f439094905e8a72dd1f341617bd0e20bc5e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m? | Event: materialists-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $26-29m? | Event: elio-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-15-22 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? | 75,538,369 | 75,538,369 |
eec986c636be3e54cb60b7e44508b0f06dddd2d9 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xccbe5f414ce88a95bd2257d3e590fa68482cb029a53f8540281ad03aeb6332f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $26-29m? | Event: elio-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34-38m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-first-round | Will valid votes be between 6-6.2 million in Bolivia election? | 75,777,435 | 75,777,435 |
1c882138f0eb4ea0cb63d8ab930d4b83b992e57e | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x77cc143ca25f3609e1230252851099b6d372306cd79e6aa23053524e7782c8b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34-38m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $16m? | Event: materialists-opening-weekend-box-office | Choi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | 75,826,859 | 75,826,859 |
4d03fa04a31f1634546e8931f58384a6e758abfc | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xda2b75a6b2429309ed3debb6de73f4f671df2fa2724f17f4f380d8d90b85a1a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $16m? | Event: materialists-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $29m? | Event: elio-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 0.818554 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-796 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30 million views on day 1? | 75,865,177 | 75,865,177 |
800b860669906fe6f9ede42a27245d7585374d49 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x3cb3cf8d0edffa478bf360f0c2bef64bd5d193361849b10cc1bc60e0aa3bc3c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $29m? | Event: elio-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19-20m? | Event: turnout-in-2025-canadian-federal-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0.000984 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 50-60 million views on week 1? | 75,872,659 | 75,872,659 |
593543e4cdb3255e30b40eefd3e4fe70a54a9f2b | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x9b78d36a623914fc27cd77f78961a623494a2992840de40eb0a2ad59f4579468 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19-20m? | Event: turnout-in-2025-canadian-federal-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 0.116181 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-796 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35 million views on day 1? | 75,898,801 | 75,898,801 |
3342d482abe4da17f5b43f157b17433f7c34bb9c | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xc8386bf31f3b7cf2b475f538b46e5b714f2b4be101ba77c121664151573e6944 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $128-139m? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-796 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1? | 75,898,801 | 75,898,801 |
6f64e9a28179a119a271a872445f7cf726545164 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x2699956a36de7344182df190de40628fcf831e1d9915ccb1c64863cd627d729e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $128-139m? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Ch... | yes | 1 | mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Will MrBeast raise 40m on Sunday August 31? | 75,905,370 | 75,905,370 |
70e8b60e0d3949b6c654661777c7ee89a7b816a4 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xe8a6e627bde35b8b954804309fb83cc923a4f7a309b8e2944a4bccee55e9ac0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9995909336847414
2. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Con... | no | 0.999959 | mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Will MrBeast raise 40m on Tuesday September 2 or later? | 75,905,475 | 75,905,475 |
1be584d1f635f0a11f77a4339aaebb1f7bc821dd | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xb2fc36d5f9bd808e7e1c65b21da9f69cb112541d3b403034f66b0004e38172ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-august-31 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | 75,911,740 | 75,911,740 |
3c9e868a1573642bb44f60bce25d7de4e8550a3f | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x0cb2e3e4875d912069f00470dabe051c6c804089e202d5d92119ec58b3d9c867 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18... | yes | 0.000016 | what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-polish-president-on-september-3 | Will Trump say "NATO" during events with Polish president on September 3? | 75,940,570 | 75,940,570 |
182015486f584f28e0bef41fdb5ffa6d35e17f1e | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x231f558643c68ee1d37cec2d4f48d820ca140856b6080024f5ab0fbbd5cb3906 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–Au... | no | 0.2 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? | 75,985,243 | 76,141,863 |
7c007a36d925a9c09b8f64fc7ecd8ce8e0ba3cdb | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x45b31b7bbd7aa021725b38268e1a4aaededcf7d02f66af8e915a375389eac97f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's next video ge... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-polish-president-on-september-3 | Will Trump say "Trump" during events with Polish president on September 3? | 76,114,341 | 76,114,341 |
e0a79cc4ad2acb76fff827e20061459b424493d2 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x80aeb936b17982b727d366bb8c98ab693ad2aa21feef1234699aeb337d043719 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | how-much-money-will-mrbeast-raise-by-midnight | Will MrBeast raise between $42m and $43m by midnight? | 76,114,341 | 76,114,341 |
a34375385d0d57def6babeb7b8d9e3d34ce9ba25 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x74180414ee2365e53253cba726f95d1f4eed04287b03760dbad2c9e5ba957cb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Choic... | no | 0.999829 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 60-70 million views on week 1? | 76,141,863 | 76,141,863 |
2b399d2c65ce8e58680d9c8aa67e90643689c437 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xc72e20b74575d12df64e66bd0bd88d3f94bcd4263499945439a55bf182bf7de8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Choice... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? | 76,141,863 | 76,141,863 |
3bbfc6c3ebc66f142e4048aa32b54f0170da3eed | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xc60076b8a299000e668c354b5ef7f180253be03d6584bcd3657ed685cdd440be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Choic... | yes | 1 | norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | 76,265,533 | 76,265,533 |
d94db78772ac97947059b1b5c4409d81cca47b84 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xda1e13b408a29f7e630ce1e20c31331e7c4a1a60961bee8bd96aae210e97e2b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-norway | Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | 76,265,533 | 76,265,533 |
e78dcf0788adde7c8ab85fd5cd0c41207ca28349 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xad5c2225599157e5c54739adeaa1f4c3d7b608f026e0ddc1cd3dac34dd14f765 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | yes | 0.54699 | israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | 76,280,828 | 76,299,835 |
f68add83433098e198a197730b02cee9a5a0b07d | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xd995200b17e64701e235842e3372214e54fb4b5319ed36cfaebb85fc31c6783f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | red-vs-blue-block-margin-of-victory | Will the Blue Bloc win by 9 or more seats? | 76,310,848 | 76,310,848 |
0ccb4b5cd148ccbb4c2a8c2a28a71539f058d0e6 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x669b35203fbaaf260e1e5198b8ca2ebd7887d7ffa6985dab99abb0bf94ef674e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | how-many-seats-will-the-red-bloc-win-in-norwegian-election | Will the red bloc win between 78 and 80 seats in the Norwegian election? | 76,417,632 | 76,417,632 |
827082f05fc760b6c8e0523009ab82f21568b825 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xdf94bc889cc74b59adb139f2f59c86dd3c74b0d839ecde3f70178efa4932b58b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 0.999959 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-523 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? | 76,458,290 | 76,458,290 |
7e3db6b95a0d778092152977a2c7b934c6554a45 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x33e9820998c7f9d3258999bc1f1ab4341de836d826a8583a1457c2a8f834c2b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0.200417 | will-trump-impose-more-sanctions-on-russia-by-september-30 | Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? | 76,469,333 | 76,513,425 |
ac5374068fbf8e9370295aeeef70b306d01a92cb | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x7aad6194e1b0512a00e5938e90421d3ca15e76e815c20970b9b1c3fa7cc406c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7175619951420663
2. Question: Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-taylor-swift-x-travis-kelce-podc... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-523 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 50-55 million views on day 1? | 76,473,014 | 76,473,014 |
1e02aebe24d578e5b02d2613658b389127134b32 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x89e81e635c88e6911638f97d005d5603ed1d1a31272426eb5f007ffdc7e8a873 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-taylor-swift-x-travis-kelce-podcast-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets |... | yes | 0.000058 | what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-uk-prime-minister-on-september-18 | Will Trump say "NATO" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18? | 76,592,987 | 76,602,256 |
29800ecf212ab79b87a2adfedc206cf58bc44695 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x7ad4e86072380c2de53e8f6cf272ffcb560fb21e204deb7d8e93fdc18113d9fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 90-100 million views on week 1? | 76,699,776 | 76,699,776 |
1375008d1fce97f32b16382f0e77853b31077c7b | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xa389b2ac9a57dcfcd805aa81e4a8b9d12989adec600c359f6008a79ffc274d2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 20 and 30 million views the first week? | Event: of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? | 76,746,029 | 76,746,029 |
66a7c21c4e23aeefb1eb7dd0faa8bdbacaa2695b | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xc3bbc563eede54e1b2fcb690f2ba2ff89179ed736354e40a47f535c4b0e5e150 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 20 and 30 million views the first week? | Event: of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heights-gets-week-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.182177535399997
2. Question: Will the next MrBeast video be between 15 and 20 min? | Event: len... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,746,029 | 76,746,029 |
7b85ed041ff5b878e1d2d5e7842e5f05a90f8cf8 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xe2cf26ce97f98c18ea0c538365e00301c2dfee067a23fe196e0dcf1f848dba5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next MrBeast video be between 15 and 20 min? | Event: length-of-the-next-mrbeast-video | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 10 and 20 million views the first week? | Event: of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heig... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1 | Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 4.0–4.5 million views on day 1? | 76,985,651 | 76,985,651 |
b139a9ca1f1227c3378cdacc6c80af93e7a02ac3 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xe83bd55f6759415ed97d773ef0f9b3ef0c993b8da45cfb643e24f64a39877643 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 10 and 20 million views the first week? | Event: of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heights-gets-week-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? | Event: elon-musk-of-t... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1 | Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 3.5–4.0 million views on day 1? | 76,986,191 | 76,986,191 |
94ac5bb4e5624d57307d4c7cc12e2eb723459052 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xef14343bd12654cee5f1e01cb79f46dd7aacb200fda65969a0e328e52afb7011 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-15-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will valid votes be between 6-6.2 million in Bolivia election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-first-round | Choice: yes | Con... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1 | Will Marques Brownlee's next video get less than 2.5 million views on day 1? | 76,986,191 | 76,986,191 |
9334f4d68f125c35d664c30c8e169c6cc9d6674e | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xf3f022f426ba10369fea6fb4a5d6f93381fcb5c236c172035db70f7b3fa32959 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will valid votes be between 6-6.2 million in Bolivia election? | Event: turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-first-round | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 0.753407 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? | 76,988,307 | 77,024,571 |
06079f32a27ab143cc465adb948db3a9b346e522 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x344d5c811ce7b0fc31382ccbc4adbe1dc00cdaacb75d988a800885c49f3da89d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-796 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.81855... | yes | 0.992586 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-359 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? | 76,995,627 | 77,333,873 |
535f87b04260c674b75e59f852ecdf0989255cc5 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x24e468f92ab3dcf7ddc4cef54fe7a04d3d1915fde478e12909da3457c0dd9793 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-796 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8185537950944511
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50-60 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-w... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | 77,024,571 | 77,024,571 |
0e68ebab5faba30769863d51f2762f851262e067 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x2c286d66f60913af9d5af1cf92a45119a786914f5493544fab6bc46c68b660cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50-60 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0009835317130285233
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | 77,050,964 | 77,050,964 |
4d25545d2e5003dfe87bbc052a0d4a41d1c51ff6 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x4e260644d880a94f5212422767cfb05181f632f6e8b1ac3cc766258d28cf6092 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-796 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1161808921887464
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-d... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35–40 million views on day 1? | 77,050,964 | 77,050,964 |
a9d6d2804a71dc2b2778c3c4cbff9b72d92d1740 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x5d92e2c9c14f7a26c95f87be7406d550ba83c66b34bc3fc13d9cfa43e9ab1aaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-796 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast raise 40m on Sunday August 31? | Event: mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrB... | yes | 1 | moldova-parliamentary-election | Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | 77,050,964 | 77,050,964 |
b1c29e470b7e11412561f14e4c9a276e46908f19 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x8c4598bd3b330a18ab5879e8465af1b7e81619e9efde11d1d32fbb2185e0d076 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast raise 40m on Sunday August 31? | Event: mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast raise 40m on Tuesday September 2 or later? | Event: mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999586174156421
3. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire by... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1 | Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 2.5–3.0 million views on day 1? | 77,050,964 | 77,050,964 |
70b21862ae71401afe057e0df336cf3482f54f4d | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x9cba0b7c9ea0897ffaba9e64047c1a6472f48a69b435773c438ad41f2f255520 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast raise 40m on Tuesday September 2 or later? | Event: mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999586174156421
2. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "N... | no | 1 | moldova-parliamentary-election | Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | 77,050,964 | 77,050,964 |
5c501352a9646f47a6e4c5ece407c76695facf71 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x9fb45c5a0f6c886f3975cdb3a0835f67ca17b89b52346d179fab83a8e055c39f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "NATO" during events with Polish president on September 3? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-polish-president-on-september-3 | Choice:... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-day-1 | Will Sidemen's next video get 5.0 million or more views on day 1? | 77,065,315 | 77,065,315 |
2530f5ba5ae674a4354e1aa0e9bf8621b19e8a6e | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xefe1310230b42f3d3ed3cb08662770c0f61acaad537b69c6c9140c64f9010eb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "NATO" during events with Polish president on September 3? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-polish-president-on-september-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.6002544004103056e-05
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? | Even... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-day-1 | Will Sidemen's next video get between 2.0–2.5 million views on day 1? | 77,065,315 | 77,065,315 |
0b1f697a384d0bc4e0b4db47b7d30734cd9132af | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x6c289108fdc6c665f1f8ed79107caeb3b8cf525005d75a6957ed22333022774f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Trump say "Trump" during events with Polish president on September 3? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-pol... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-day-1 | Will Sidemen's next video get between 3.0–3.5 million views on day 1? | 77,069,648 | 77,069,648 |
2f59bd97939e8caf0e9cd02cf6eefb00e6f9df1d | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x7e5d655885e9100674de4b9c53286e14ffdc5476e2665e6cbff4d2b8fc922632 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Trump" during events with Polish president on September 3? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-polish-president-on-september-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast raise between $42m and $43m by midnight? | Event: how-much-money-will-mrbeast-rai... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-day-1 | Will Sidemen's next video get between 2.5–3.0 million views on day 1? | 77,212,849 | 77,212,849 |
84a61b42c1fb9150517dfe0baf7ffb66ec1634a8 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x301557fb194ea0d9bfab8c98c3910943bb331217af2cbc3ba21fbde232069ffe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast raise between $42m and $43m by midnight? | Event: how-much-money-will-mrbeast-raise-by-midnight | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 60-70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-916 | Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? | 77,310,424 | 77,310,424 |
e84ec8f956a0fa0d048d615d73ce1f3fab4999e1 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x45d8f020e9fdb6d889de721aa235201db3c6efe85abbb18e3df41bc5908f2de5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 60-70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998286546808669
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-week-1-291 | Will Sidemen's next video get between 7.0–8.0 million views on week 1? | 77,310,424 | 77,310,424 |
28798b666e131693412feb7b7e2f67e8dba1ecb2 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x85939feba8bce774cf2c49258d9c130d91269ef94dc6cf0276c313568171b56a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | Event: norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Cho... | yes | 0.99999 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-916 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | 77,310,424 | 77,310,424 |
6372e8e7a2e294db878a1ea026eb17fd865d0431 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x93514c80b96a03d10641c500464d4b85cf6e34d6f194f5081716368a724c3890 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | Event: norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-week-1-291 | Will Sidemen's next video get 8.0 million or more views on week 1? | 77,310,424 | 77,310,424 |
0896911599496cf1d3fee8bd73844b90962c2573 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x03dd10a9dfc1d3103e078bc4b33e4c99f1e42957c88bab197caa7629d1dfabf9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5469898799667684
3. Question: Will th... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-week-1-291 | Will Sidemen's next video get between 6.0–7.0 million views on week 1? | 77,333,873 | 77,333,873 |
d9e511f2a4b31f505aad0cb1f00c14eef8ca901d | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x4dd76ac10cb49bdbe7c7df792534f84dc244bbb9b638485e079bb4b2dca01dd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5469898799667684
2. Question: Will the Blue Bloc win by 9 or more seats? | Event: red-vs-blue-block-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the red bloc wi... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1-464 | Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 2.5–3.0 million views on day 1? | 77,473,062 | 77,473,062 |
6b9200f7e205d289f6f015959b65a308ae50fd7a | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xa5f117032e376a8a7330d83f7b2a8abf7c53a0b92945dbcfe64d429a78c2709b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Blue Bloc win by 9 or more seats? | Event: red-vs-blue-block-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the red bloc win between 78 and 80 seats in the Norwegian election? | Event: how-many-seats-will-the-red-bloc-win-in-norwegian-election | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1-464 | Will Marques Brownlee's next video get less than 2.0 million views on day 1? | 77,473,062 | 77,473,062 |
4029dc05691bac6133fa373da74b06290c01baf1 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x1a1146b03ef098216c87df24cf986a825e860e90ca0bcf2b80367952f997cbea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the red bloc win between 78 and 80 seats in the Norwegian election? | Event: how-many-seats-will-the-red-bloc-win-in-norwegian-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-stokes-twins-video-on-day-1 | Will Stokes Twins' next video get 15 million or more views on day 1? | 77,473,790 | 77,473,790 |
1174719029c6cadcfde9f15246350535b50ba2cc | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x1a27e36f8314205624d022faef259813e8e54995fea52b6cb2f72582839c4641 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-523 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999586675208713
2. Question: Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Event: will-trump-impose-more-sanctions-on-russia-b... | yes | 0.833883 | of-views-of-the-fate-of-ophelia-by-friday | Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 35–40 million views on Friday at noon? | 77,495,719 | 77,607,624 |
9dee06630fe7316db0352ad12dba689366b54e97 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x96816f3d4799f28d7337c5ae9422ef6b38d26e8ca71a35c5d0ab2886e6786475 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Event: will-trump-impose-more-sanctions-on-russia-by-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20041749715514004
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50-55 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-vid... | no | 0 | of-views-of-the-fate-of-ophelia-by-friday | Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 40–45 million views on Friday at noon? | 77,496,965 | 77,496,965 |
2e236c2adfb7ac181e6e3f49afd6f85857c0d573 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x16a1cb6540e803156c1205502dcafc8c8b90fbfe738ec038d63f564cd7100e6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50-55 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-523 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "NATO" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-uk-... | no | 1 | of-views-of-the-fate-of-ophelia-by-friday | Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have less than 25 million views on Friday at noon? | 77,518,658 | 77,518,658 |
7135a4bc89271c04368da92b138e5daef8981993 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x7a2c448176bf9e0d936fe65ab3148c773105b2bb0bb067897861d136095ce6bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "NATO" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-uk-prime-minister-on-september-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.816838336401837e-05
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 90-100 million views on week 1? | ... | no | 0.000011 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-191 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? | 77,588,238 | 77,607,368 |
867874840674e9bf862c0578966839548d948801 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xf460bbb386e7baf70457540667b457aa3b04671d5c1cd36fbc5ca9a4222767e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 90-100 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1 | Choice:... | yes | 0.979914 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-191 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1? | 77,588,256 | 77,912,592 |
6887c3041a58c7b0793fd8f9610269fe418e7ef8 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x939b1d065cdd5e40b1d0c4d8cd4b0c506a67e36faeea3adbf9bb6bd0bfc018d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-1... | yes | 0.888738 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-191 | Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1? | 77,588,267 | 77,912,592 |
11c578d001caa97f12a7e3d2773952ba0e730180 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x50001b17834df31175969262b5f909d86db8b097c1ec4db82579fc96e8ffc1bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 4.0–4.5 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-marques-brow... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-pewdiepie-video-on-day-1-216 | Will PewDiePie’s next video get less than 1.0 million views on day 1? | 77,606,807 | 77,606,807 |
b0ffcbacd3b4d34d7c88835d495f766e08259f86 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x7cb52b3f97214cc7af18dd087e5a5e0a430bbf30682820b7f1d59bfca55c8555 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 4.0–4.5 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 3.5–4.0 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-marques... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | 77,606,807 | 77,606,807 |
804bf181d1b2384f73cdf322edf0116fe37ad122 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x9262e6ba698689ea5e71a6de05173173cba23dd5fa93c52cca45d2bd360080bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 3.5–4.0 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marques Brownlee's next video get less than 2.5 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-marques-b... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-pewdiepie-video-on-day-1-216 | Will PewDiePie’s next video get 1.5 million or more views on day 1? | 77,606,807 | 77,606,807 |
bc6416432c38c02eb8b385e8d25776bdc4acfbdf | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x0f98e2047f6a218d0f27984c08ccd6f5ae927f0285e79243bc073a820d2da33d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marques Brownlee's next video get less than 2.5 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | 77,607,624 | 77,607,624 |
1c835a99c14e56dd20b9a7c60bae1b7d46425299 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x1a69d82ab78bc6b562f7ccea7b6f913d35e2c6ca40d3a986091c80b86541299e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7534068070734473
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | 77,607,624 | 77,607,624 |
ca0c0ee993240326cec55931abf3445f0394bd68 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x65315e61bf44fe8af7ee3c47eecd51bb5df3e909657fff91f81a19425a16a865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-359 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9925861048109859
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-the-fate-of-ophelia-by-friday | Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 25–30 million views on Friday at noon? | 77,607,624 | 77,607,624 |
f22d084a19360d5595242b0a6046463fbd06fd4e | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x9d6df2e0b939ba812a28110323cb21a5338827c6582a7792baddfb8a19cfa9f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Choic... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | 77,607,624 | 77,607,624 |
23ce23cd7337ffd73dc1b193440ba5b14d2ac552 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xa40cd42d4dab33e1aab7f34fd7593d46c44914f6e92f4029e69537c18154feb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 35–40 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Choi... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-the-fate-of-ophelia-by-friday | Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 30–35 million views on Friday at noon? | 77,607,624 | 77,607,624 |
c2238bca404c5c337bb5d735198be653a36d5050 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xaecce2b7062a75acef14d739910c6c599b1640aa191caaf1d0a3798eeba0f09e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 35–40 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | Event: moldova-parliamentary... | yes | 1 | the-life-of-a-showgirl-first-week-album-sales-121 | Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000? | 77,607,624 | 77,607,624 |
c260193a766b9c53d86efbd91ee4053abae5c7b9 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xd122b600c6cd90fe139a9de7f1885ad032bbde65de2c669d0b253746319e5737 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | Event: moldova-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 2.5–3.0 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-marque... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-pewdiepie-video-on-day-1-216 | Will PewDiePie’s next video get between 1.0–1.1 million views on day 1? | 77,607,624 | 77,607,624 |
dab1453b2e6b94e9601122b5f5bd3c53e52d2fc1 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xdd2f6a958de5d007541509b86d6ab222254a280f7af66152aaff2da46bf45bad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 2.5–3.0 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-day-1-464 | Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 2.0–2.5 million views on day 1? | 77,607,624 | 77,607,624 |
adafcba5fbdf60fba67b4c21e8a6c68adc688018 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xfaea75a7cc8e54db066761d3aa49d860ffbd25dc117b087332453ecf821bd282 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | Event: moldova-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sidemen's next video get 5.0 million or more views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1? | 77,607,624 | 77,607,624 |
ab9194dc1d3ea54041561fa5d69923cce70ed694 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x3ab9f28ace4efebe6d1661e3242e4d31aab894b2e4a46db5a7a53898ec05e4f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sidemen's next video get 5.0 million or more views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sidemen's next video get between 2.0–2.5 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-day-1 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-marques-brownlee-video-on-week-1 | Will Marques Brownlee's next video get 13.0 million or more views on week 1? | 77,734,491 | 77,734,491 |
a24adb19cd6a144f20ec7be30ee521b9b81ac4c5 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x41190eb9336ae73949c04f4900f9865092e69a57cf9c942a6157abf6ae8d16c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..... | no | 0.000004 | who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | 32,308,886 | 35,400,810 |
917ac7e51de2456906e7d290537a4184704f6349 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xe0658c4beed2102c181b3987edff5edd578ad2952a6eb5fa8018925e5d7a48fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
Target market:
Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 e... | democratic | 0 | which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election | Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | 35,380,595 | 35,380,595 |
bb3d25f589c5fce46f408b58863d9bc7565445cf | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x9e60c432648859520a987648fe23b662cd7537ae76c459cfe9288ef4ca8f883e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0 | what-will-us-inflation-be-from-october-to-november-2022 | Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.3% from October to November 2022? | 35,730,578 | 36,795,894 |
9271c9ff31d64c7757b4c4ef345273bab40effc0 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xddac406b76b46d7998a797fa984c7c7b04812db75b89ecfc49e2fd0d6b9b8a93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0 | will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-presidential-election | Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | 42,781,322 | 44,132,296 |
6660aad41246e67a80ed4104dbfaa2d7f755a3f5 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xa5b976b27bbb180578d715c698581a522be28d6ac38bed8271e000eebe4aacec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0 | balaji-bet-btc-1m-usd-on-june-17 | Balaji Bet: BTC > $1m USD on June 17? | 42,781,673 | 42,781,715 |
b7dbf61f2fe4f75334ec100e72848d06c12c2659 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x4d40e1d7849ae33e49a0fc4a18b45169e4456b684b0d584b4cc582a9fc4b7ac0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0 | will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on | Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2023? | 42,786,986 | 44,132,296 |
a5c9b4ee0ed82a97dd63d1f4414af83922723753 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xb0e72032ff0155c4dfbf0d5b8da76c07f13b99c01f1fb8e3b84b2926c21594f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0 | is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | 46,694,778 | 46,694,778 |
37b6c880d25ed32db40a90fec99fec0d1fb0efb0 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xf5875410202b3545491774ab5e712a6e05a0ffe780c52270cc8d70cc95164411 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0 | who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination | [Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | 51,401,863 | 63,693,787 |
db1ad741eb7b9b5b1eaa298cc6aa29b3272afcb7 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xb36886bb0cf7cede4fd57fedbbbf80342ec76921d567fa9958275c22e1df04bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 1 | bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | 51,950,977 | 53,311,723 |
911abae8ac5e7e4d069b9f3c6ed28f6892fa109a | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x7aad06ab25a73359f3212edd60bfd9d57a5c175c4704476efe7518091db4d700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus >40% | 52,219,855 | 52,259,364 |
821c18b127510a50e8627debb270332a4f8139bd | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xa25e64a9b6b6dec0eb70f44a028541ab2603e300fd88597bdd446b1242abaa2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 9? | 52,259,687 | 52,259,687 |
3f528e8e3fefb3116ad7782b80d93ac10c810e7d | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x2073651de484121bddaf813852fef10999f1ed861576d6e82ff4c7f0328d1429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10? | 52,259,699 | 52,259,699 |
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