sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
f79b93b04db4ce62ce660647f905a6413e7f92ff | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xbff5b9ad66c5f6ff8e94f2ceb4796c4568de3e099e385ac99abc0c1a8307cfd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend? | Event: mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? | Event: lilo-stitch-ope... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 1? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
1470bf147b703d6504136301cb0152c5fde6749c | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xc4f949aa2bdc1e20b760ae587591bd4ac5faab3214f862259905a473e78287bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? | Event: lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score the most total points in the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Event: nba-western-conference-finals-point... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-may-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on May 31? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
64b3fb9133d5c000518ace4690b172715ab8f193 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xf65c98f77bd31ecc8f0ef30bafc83d5fa9be0175fbe45b21cab0e4c3e675539f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score the most total points in the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Event: nba-western-conference-finals-points-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will John Mulaney actually fight children? | Event: will-john-mulaney-actually-fight-children | Choic... | no | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-may-31 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
a2b6d3a19621bcaffcefbd27fe15dc61e9448ea3 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x2a686b8bc6e6f0f2bfc63acb6930053f3ff121ae6ebe414b2cc889c922067bbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will John Mulaney actually fight children? | Event: will-john-mulaney-actually-fight-children | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | who-will-reach-the-quarterfinals-of-french-open | Will Carlos Alcaraz reach the quarterfinals of the French Open? | 72,275,720 | 72,275,720 |
9e8f59f3eaad0f6ec79535ab9e1029787f2f6096 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x18f2c6bbb01d5293fbc87954407a2336a5d3e54cca2aadf632046d47e9d2c348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 24 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-24-5pm-et | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
17b00980a824362e58b5175260a7c230b19040cb | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x1c3d6106393e34528308f42d5caee3d9d38e35286272bcf235822f4940e7be5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 24 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-24-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-28-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-2nd-place | Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
12cfce96ed46b010469021ccd93983cd1a210fdc | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x258b33c98865de3844d46b2b1a2b3c860c786de7bc12dfd075eef598e252107a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-28-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temp... | no | 1 | may-unemployment-rate | Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
3bfad411b651448ddd659f1bdce63bd5c6943da9 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x33dc61d98fa95ddb364bf409fa1c6683b65a009cb1a577ec21b41e4c58391051 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or higher on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-5-5pm-et-455 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
6bf87a23009ce779427485f468ac081b705469a5 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x367b5d54a83fb5cd75c2065474166e19a85b7b1d290a938af1b7f67e7402af88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or higher on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-26-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | may-unemployment-rate | Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
cf9a3758730070777bee196b4e0a64f0c8ede105 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x6ac410efb3f814c425e889eb52aab64f1d8b792fcf3348646b75f45c7800c014 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-26-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kyle Fraser win Survivor 48? | Event: survivor-48-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 Bit... | no | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-2nd-place | Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
e3d75bbb2788b562a6c2d15fa145360f30e9a225 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x7f61c465515c8e5b23ea61c0b677486b73d0777d4038eef1edb41e9a4b65aebc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kyle Fraser win Survivor 48? | Event: survivor-48-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 Bitpanda Hamburg Open? | Event: 2025-bitpanda-hamburg-open-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York C... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
8d922d05e17f758ec877ff07f3191c318110a1ac | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x8c2827821f8d04a08addced7df2e2b69e21e54cadd83af51c8b9404c572f0a91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 Bitpanda Hamburg Open? | Event: 2025-bitpanda-hamburg-open-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-25-719 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-south-korea-presidential-election | Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
cb5e6a7c912b1aea26dc7b5e5b00dcf1d207bce6 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xb0fa81fbc0e9d9a3772eab156ceba2a7b274366a85a930bd1bcc06980b6e3397 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-25-719 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberal Party win between 41% and 44% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election? | Event: liberal-party-of-vote-in... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on June 4? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
0cdbf42e557bf1c632f4a56b3a9e5ce536f6dd50 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xe769d4755e52215e7fdc7e0035b7fb9a8c99e063600c979f06435025f6eda0f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal Party win between 41% and 44% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election? | Event: liberal-party-of-vote-in-canada-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-30-5p... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-3 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 3? | 72,450,441 | 72,450,441 |
eb335171f81ec7f827fe68480bc482d5525460bc | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x20fe4b037a1dc0578b0d125b0b427a06d8666068e8b901b1c181e82bc844c45d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon M... | no | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-3rd-place | Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election? | 72,450,443 | 72,450,443 |
8e91b07e3a10e27f8fa27586812fbf0206488b68 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x6009cd63be1742b38865bdaeeb98d39e15bd62be57d51e4788b822bd8576364f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on May 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-may-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elena Rybakina w... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? | 72,450,443 | 72,450,443 |
2ed93036a17492911445809f047c343eb4c2574d | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x6edca3037f22ba28ca42fd62af8b8ecd755adde5ce6948ba345a492756201757 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on May 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-may-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest tem... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-3 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 3? | 72,450,443 | 72,450,443 |
224ac2246d7a2d9d86ef4b7f3f1f831747060852 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xdede2bd3fb0054887627a616d2eca5f8322f639e5c9b9d56644de34ee18982ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in Dubai be between 101-102°F on May 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-dubai-on-may-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will R... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | 72,450,443 | 72,450,443 |
f701bee1e6c8a94e133988a8b1c25acad63b0c7c | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xf036d981c65c089883ef9b8188398dd929774f734c4a1f6a93e77dbe6a822f04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in Dubai be between 101-102°F on May 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-dubai-on-may-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Wielkopolskie? | Event: polish-presidential-elections-regions | Choice: trzaskowski | ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6? | 72,450,443 | 72,450,443 |
6635f83eb8b22458ad5854861837c7bcb0ce887c | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x74b32397d1f81bf752b8473fa2280067feded27ec773ca10bf836d8dd2760323 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Wielkopolskie? | Event: polish-presidential-elections-regions | Choice: trzaskowski | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | lilo-stitch-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80? | 72,450,444 | 72,450,444 |
966a8d645cbc2e808d557ff2ac5f8c4d25385337 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xbfa0234637fb473d74a5bf3e879c1036f41c423bd68561c859572bc9d0eb34d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | suriname-parliamentary-election-winner | Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election? | 72,450,444 | 72,450,444 |
562e5cebe4d84c56c253e1f02bb2eaaa87afd422 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xcd0f19ab3df36a9a719d9075ddd86c2fad3ab5790a144a923e08b88301dc78e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-june-2025 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? | 72,450,444 | 72,450,444 |
695ba0a8608371c6a0815b6cfe10316531ad0619 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xe86c60bab87ebf00a208c366f3478dce976023366e1c627b2cb2e8729130ab7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | which-cities-provinces-will-lee-jae-myung-win | Will Lee Jae-myung win Chungbuk State (충청북도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election? | 72,450,444 | 72,450,444 |
0ee00a630042acce8b8f125e8e70544c4c787713 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xf59b8f3582259daf3ca4d0899b3f628d86e7f467797e8f2afacb597dab26d402 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on May 30? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will P... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-south-korea-presidential-election | Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election? | 72,450,444 | 72,450,444 |
8a3ae0b58ab794a77602a450cb6f2e2225b8dc3b | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xf84909eb6ee7ac8e7c9ccd9370f787ea1d34efd035045b0bbbd98f1b3c208446 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on May 30? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | who-will-lee-jun-seok-endorse | Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? | 72,450,444 | 72,450,444 |
85367b2cd2a3b7726bbfaf805f689b290603f554 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xfd0cdd9b426b2c30fb7f20918e55a4097742e0cb5eae676c2a50a5b8d49ba847 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Simon Yat... | no | 1 | will-trump-sign-an-executive-order-on-may-24-30 | Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 28? | 72,450,444 | 72,450,444 |
bbff84c5d3b105c6d58c1419fa186b9b940fbd9d | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xb081b826e9838fb4eaeeaf372c1e6504e3028dcaee9478603c9a0ebd3e315fc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Simon Yates win the Giro d’Italia 2025? | Event: giro-ditalia-2025-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be ... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%? | 72,450,445 | 72,450,445 |
e19a6234f0b762d4f4044a6d743e19fea471070c | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xec6ce5238cdb19bc252807318d6ee55ee169daf95cad64bf96a1e9c57c115c70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Simon Yates win the Giro d’Italia 2025? | Event: giro-ditalia-2025-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 125–14... | no | 1 | karate-kid-legends-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m opening weekend? | 72,450,445 | 72,450,445 |
8d1e35b6f7ea2f7bd0a54ece8b827718e33f4f79 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x1ff77fc2fb34a177a8cf520ca9ebbc0b19be88ee77c1b042f38ff68617f38e29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temp... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-7 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on June 7? | 72,621,811 | 72,621,811 |
e5bdeb3e15bb687c7338e76f2b2801077f690ce6 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x40618e314f0a7d6419a3ff3b737b6804abe80f976d3d3c119a61273763c6cc32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | pga-tour-rbc-canadian-open-winner | Will Corey Conners win the 2025 RBC Canadian Open? | 72,621,811 | 72,621,811 |
9e09c8ddfb72cf0734ec22ec507c1ad7c121ce33 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x4eb4e9492a927bf387f9693090cbb1fc2c5e43a480de5834b8161ba0b0c9d403 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on May 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-may-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-9 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 9? | 72,621,811 | 72,621,811 |
1c6dfc5193fa9cd1ff90d8b22da2019fde6f6b5e | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x6688506d2b960d50570b6cbdf26a658e6f13797621f916bfb24962fcb28f12ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on May 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-may-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-may-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-play | Will "Purpose" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? | 72,621,811 | 72,621,811 |
fb19636ad1d443bde454b66349a8a83d3222861f | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xd6a3585170233f7917709a53ff27104c96337587b4a18f4e59fc01d669eeb083 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-may-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz reach the quarterfinals of the French Open? | Event: who-will-reach-the-quarterfinals-of-french-open | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | tony-awards-best-leading-actor-in-a-musical | Will Jeremy Jordan win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025? | 72,621,811 | 72,621,811 |
ecab080fe936739451980afd849c2f492551502c | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xf446a9d3084fc25aafa78acffc2479191873880939491e464a6aa17f8a15ac50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz reach the quarterfinals of the French Open? | Event: who-will-reach-the-quarterfinals-of-french-open | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | 72,621,811 | 72,621,811 |
ccb0dcb873025224662adca344f5207a1894b20f | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x2d0021ec44bed6e340c1b8bc11eb64a4cd46476f8757444068514777477ddd2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26?
Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | 78,201,459 | 78,201,459 |
d51897d8e7f1097decfdda1c5d1daae051e95f2a | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x09cb176c5afcefc0a57dd5882be94c0ee2016ec8ef9e8a3fc923a85b41125d05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo
Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice"... | kent state golden flashes | 1 | cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | 78,236,037 | 78,236,037 |
c40254d3a1d1edb4e1d73a6f5fc58bfbdd2290d3 | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x0f90d8c1f4bafa2cc38fa92441097a32116189cae5baf326ac8ab64f06853819 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Alabama vs. South Carolin... | south carolina | 1 | cfb-ala-sc-2025-10-25 | Alabama vs. South Carolina | 78,236,038 | 78,236,038 |
efdf05d8d670b32e15ef7b56ee7c7c8c9a43a58f | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x1c95745679413c53267d4969e85d2a666238f25d8238e4c5efbc0c5127776cd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-26? | 78,236,038 | 78,236,038 |
b9c1eae59e46d7d010e3add13da7fadd2d6bc9ca | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x26c5db6fef780c6372773b902ba0890a8d8c5eba6912474a4d0f6708c11bb971 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Will West Ham win on 2025-10-24? | 78,236,038 | 78,236,038 |
42006658863bbc96b5d417d451158c8763fe5f2f | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0xf66c9b22421710de79589fe69b5125369763ede935a6818834315656eec0bd0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | usc | 1 | cfb-usc-nd-2025-10-18 | USC vs. Notre Dame | 78,236,038 | 78,236,038 |
f74d2281f01a1079c03842528c3c03a7b5aff3a2 | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x80c72088ae739f69c953653573ac8da194ad7737a8aef4ca1cd9e59b33e1de4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | army | 1 | cfb-army-tulane-2025-10-18 | Army vs. Tulane | 78,236,039 | 78,236,039 |
82868e3c4d11bc6e19d22e0be49cc206fd7c030b | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x2c6789c9431c99e009b89dc785b649472850e0bb0f89dd3793c8b5dd3acf28ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,467,153 | 78,467,153 |
50815b8f20bd2737ff56eb571c90f59a68b23ccd | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x9868b162c152f5eb02c2fa647b135c09a2c63f9c88d4207da83bd533b454edb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-sev-2025-11-01 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-01? | 78,501,776 | 78,501,776 |
8909a3a6251fdbb29a85e1625ad30dd8a1a5de2c | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0xd8cd99f1c50d0fb835dc151898747f7464b6c3398ff04dd12323d15fc321a342 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? | 78,518,530 | 78,518,530 |
b590f1fba74655d302876a436b679fd9e5d3ef10 | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x8df96501c2eced8eeabe1cfc44f1d5f19b52e63b4e8f1fb3d5f9010b7020211a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | auburn tigers | 0 | cbb-merri-aubrn-2025-11-06 | Merrimack College Warriors vs. Auburn Tigers | 78,687,679 | 78,687,679 |
54b7e3c4d204d9755b225187edec5fa51edbf9f4 | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x9cacf0726b065d6a19eecf9633bbfc2668de79636ff5f6d635e02bca88e006fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | utsa roadrunners | 1 | cfb-utsa-sfl-2025-11-06 | UTSA Roadrunners vs. South Florida | 78,710,045 | 78,710,045 |
885c6614c4ab94a37daac64414448fb32d930934 | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0xd7bd58d09efa1ff15be61cf30587e79444971ab125d55b2a88bf6ec04623a0d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,710,045 | 78,710,045 |
28029ff2f51fade816f8270442880a94ce97f8ba | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x0cf0abe29da8b355f0ed50399803b0b8a83a62c7978d81abbdb2812278c918df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | yes | 1 | epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Will Wolves win on 2025-11-08? | 78,819,258 | 78,819,258 |
b74f62752d1d73b9ca33485ed3e6100196b0c470 | 0x00d66ee567046056b8703b735f2425fdf65baa44 | 0x910cb1b7d9b9c03fdc207d1c23b1ca481520ca2e4146947e3c5a6cd15cc33086 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo | Event: cfb-kentst-toledo-2025-10-18 | Choice: kent state golden flashes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Alabama vs. South Carolina | Event: cf... | purdue boilermakers | 1 | cfb-ohiost-pur-2025-11-08 | Ohio State vs. Purdue Boilermakers | 78,819,258 | 78,819,258 |
c63f93e0ed78995cc2c185c1e52f2bed13009d26 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x272e34a3e8ff6d5f90bbddc9cc6ccf364768fae6e69bf671db2a16cb4eac1a7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | 76,443,458 | 76,443,458 |
50d96fd5a5c8ab9bb4a4fd4ffbed02040b8be5cc | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xf19a3322f6719ca0b99ecc05b873f810724eecc8f8f4ad890f167b3b492116e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23?
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | 76,807,470 | 76,807,821 |
be5fff79a8b62ee3f1ba4bee3eaf11608616896a | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x1e6841cc7f7dae95393ca792963149056ff73a9ba185d67cc9cac34809e96287 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Solana Up or Dow... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Solana Up or Down on September 23? | 76,807,487 | 76,807,487 |
61e17b76072d89c6fabcf3d02a62c0b8256b8c6a | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x51a35b2f4c855b5e16526c475ae37fa0d6c6b33fe2ea74039b5f42a1a79b690a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Ethereum Up or Down on September 23? | 76,807,566 | 76,807,631 |
b2cfd884029a75e1d40e7361f85a1d7e694ee53b | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xb90a0b24583b3ff80f49c4721b4986588dc52ef729517d595d233c28305aafcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | no | 0 | solana-above-on-september-25 | Will the price of Solana be above $200 on September 25? | 76,887,900 | 76,887,900 |
52054876a36f9a4248427271b5aa07216d5d7086 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xa98579731f1d8663b78981a549f2becf9456991e43f5f7dd595d09641bc36081 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-1-6am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 1, 6AM ET | 77,124,534 | 77,124,534 |
8f02c2af927fcca5cf7bc9d7741ecd242872266a | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x0c529e26c21c26bd860a52419f2f3cc816ea760a235a3e2cd139f534f28048e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-2-12am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 2, 12AM ET | 77,155,356 | 77,159,424 |
524e4674e7c6d8184d540e933f8b3d0022828868 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xa1310b184ce0c1d29663b1c28ff942707e860a397aa3f448be22f6ce05d7b00d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12AM ET | 77,155,371 | 77,155,371 |
94f7df05240390313013c2db0d9fc09a51a949b6 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xcc5ba781460a31dc4fc4f97ba62772daef00339830917caef93e2fd88576c933 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-3-8pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 3, 8PM ET | 77,229,245 | 77,229,245 |
db5ac8f37158439294a65acd6560079303b01b3a | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x30ee73f52449a8b72439ac8b8f65724292bc2d0a40d0d2220b3d6e9ebbb6b1d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 10PM ET | 77,233,133 | 77,233,133 |
dda1008622c7818738b88aedf462046005273fb1 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x027fbeb4037f16f72c4bb2829fbc5ad6392397029760c71f8f24d7b7bbace6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-4-1am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 4, 1AM ET | 77,238,460 | 77,238,460 |
34ac9fb9b4085e4bd4f559e6a2c9ab1f5467ec49 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x090a257471f07a6ab1b1427365d7d8f897a9c4f901302c28f86054059e5c3c5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-4-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 2AM ET | 77,239,881 | 77,239,881 |
b399d085d788782c93a90bd90b952dd69e7b8af0 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x9714dc8a59cf84c649cb829b053fa7299ce358248cbddc20a808d95a6d99a404 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5AM ET | 77,244,842 | 77,244,842 |
770b1e49c4e153922a338cf421732ee5e26f915d | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x9976ca470f1f3a4a73372aef2fb48cf5eb5a1d7f39e0ceda05329ff0d55d25bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-5-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 10PM ET | 77,313,112 | 77,321,897 |
0e78f33ebc433efde7c654746fbb7d268cb300e8 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xde33c0d89b008d31cb227a3ae8cb31bf5fe69bbd4f2f2b69a28a605a0c0e0f23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-18-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2AM ET | 77,833,254 | 77,833,254 |
1469400f5435aa1d0edbf2e70dca53f00fc6e0ed | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x43eaff384a17fcfcb7764ca44fd3bc3ce65ff4ec92f4b3a6ac53978c54d0d1a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-20-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 9AM ET | 77,932,060 | 77,950,679 |
00ce22fde0bf0092cb7a1e266c2d9c1c09077ee1 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x5238fb25fc2911bb6f544ee07ba51970e05cf61a9c8affb18b072b8f9593fa60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | up | 0.208333 | xrp-up-or-down-on-october-23 | XRP Up or Down on October 23? | 78,061,222 | 78,061,222 |
ba0466441fd453363a7c6d8ab07b47a6504381a7 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xefaa22ae1e9698d07e576df3817cf5dc146cf94dd02936549b66b375327aac76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on October 28? | 78,278,299 | 78,278,299 |
17393ac84dd0b70604c6a94d2e2adafde6a39513 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xd31392083596ad84a06e885bed92433e2bf27b1fbe7d685ce2dc0fb7e3d5d09b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-28 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on October 28? | 78,296,384 | 78,296,384 |
e595e6c204df8bba644d6a05a296f970afab9b52 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xb53d1c33ad5ceff473a83d821e3dcd049209e61d1444f5b45aa21f67f254cd1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-28 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on October 28? | 78,296,385 | 78,296,385 |
cdf4fe054172ab59b36967c3fe2b780874a6a816 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x4f4275678da674fb273a353ef3dbce5b4427d6e754b55c5c4ddaf2188cfe10bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on October 29? | 78,338,800 | 78,338,800 |
9069ccc84fe3a849e3fefd58e36302a731a340a8 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x643da5bc32966a91a12cb273f47759b2ff4df78beb7a6cd4f7795bf81bf1e2f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on October 29? | 78,338,800 | 78,338,800 |
a100d2c5527856c56db0fa3368e38f0409287aa3 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x6e91da3af603722799e617ea66291655ea15ef54d2f47351bfba9a9cd11779b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $230 on October 29? | 78,338,800 | 78,338,800 |
05207220dcaf88e73176262140797b677bd63114 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x7547bf6bad63da9c9287abb54fac37c249720d38fc900f4c0d9bb7fcba416b3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 29? | 78,338,800 | 78,338,800 |
671d5892149d3f4fc0359fdbf9d3398095abb9d6 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xadb63d5efea2a8b85128500af6ee5ac55e20ca6bf332a8059714f42af0981e34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 29? | 78,338,800 | 78,338,800 |
7e4c5d61c695b0d92cc71fa40bd1b0f5d4c718f6 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x9fe19497ab3b71063828548827b8ede2f7fd3efa115cc6f762d391b5fc341331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of Solana be between $220 and $230 on October 29? | 78,338,801 | 78,338,801 |
9d52b1ca4a4bf346aa8a68a720eca93e4d1b50da | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xdfbef29c1096f6372bf89f0510596a9c0c6835e885cd17de896cbe73c3ca7bb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.90 on October 29? | 78,338,801 | 78,338,801 |
efdd0c921bb8acc2a16db3ae8646850c4dfe996c | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x3aab13d3a4b2eecb0074cddfc1735fdc87603d9d4bf3635547b7e296604690c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,400 on October 29? | 78,338,802 | 78,338,802 |
758680e6bb017235ef837753abbce80d42ecf4c8 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x34722c7d3b8eab77b7bf42819b7424a11fe4e0f85d8963bda12ec293acf4d10a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-30 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on October 30? | 78,382,136 | 78,382,136 |
9ddb78bcc979646a05341671cd8261bb29492ccd | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x52b98cd263fa7563fb97bc04270fb6380d9a88f35711c2e567fb7936b83d8a2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 30? | 78,382,136 | 78,382,136 |
66ee96271d5d7042411d8d4d724cf9b2dce2cdd2 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x7672f076fabd66f1b49198c04d1ad3be297b88bf4bdff34e333365a017aa66ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-14-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on Septembe... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-30 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on October 30? | 78,382,136 | 78,382,136 |
4e94e726bff3e15d9bf5015502407b6083100b58 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xe722cfc48703876b24145ff6b346726160bffe510b2c074c29de2aea75c47cb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on September 23? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on September 23? | Even... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on October 30? | 78,382,136 | 78,382,136 |
17c14367b0ac9e54a8fbc2ae9ec64f368974e93e | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xe730e0aedb408ee102011b4529e8b7426e474f7e62cdd59b517b66d3082adc5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on September 23? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on September 23? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $200 on... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-30 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on October 30? | 78,382,136 | 78,382,136 |
dc8891e007aeb16e652ef157fc65d7161425d865 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x4d94eca261fc0592e1a22e4a7efd4623e6bac87fa2c2ef7644eb856162d25f1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on September 23? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-september-23 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $200 on September 25? | Event: solana-above-on-september-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 1,... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,400 on October 30? | 78,382,137 | 78,382,137 |
3dd2e7d4b38b38f5c2c283fc1d3e9ec708bb35aa | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x113f73d1f14ff64a4b542919bbf3333986793b611a7090f30e138f507e9bc5aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $200 on September 25? | Event: solana-above-on-september-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 1, 6AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-1-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 2, 12... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $230 on October 31? | 78,423,000 | 78,423,000 |
96bc031bc8b2d7fa806e2f904260a90bfa5a9de7 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x2f68519a8d479e2770ba2274c26ca3a3b8ed8a91dbe3ebc188b9335cee0dc084 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 1, 6AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-1-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 2, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-2-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12AM ET |... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Solana be between $220 and $230 on October 31? | 78,423,000 | 78,423,000 |
6461179d984b2ac8e06d9d1ca97b1f77b43770f7 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x31951adfc509a0b96259c1c2bb55c9698375385b77c97c643c3e66f2e00c7b57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 2, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-2-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 3, ... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | 78,423,000 | 78,423,000 |
6e610e7671afb08b7f96bc6b1ab56dcd3f70b645 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x47722bc8cd9a6057adfdf8b4ff1f249b2b544ea2e36252d4976cbbb0e22f80d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 3, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 31? | 78,423,000 | 78,423,000 |
820f9b55d5b1309a49635ddecce93b3a3f7de418 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x4d69b5f15bd3360a940e49769794f37ad92ce20952ca26ff3ebde99bc871629d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 3, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 4, 1A... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on October 31? | 78,423,000 | 78,423,000 |
f751c92eb8fff9cf6e52c3a414379c88fd5007a6 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xcb4fcf568d9a8904edb647d0d414605475d79b8037b6a7c8e033cc702832e056 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 4, 1AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on October 31? | 78,423,000 | 78,423,000 |
8400cd923b37e1a6ddb5d2d8b2a97369b157a10b | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xd45736edd2e790623486bdbb50f95508429178f6c99e2dcbb8af5dff1f1535b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 4, 1AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,400 on October 31? | 78,423,000 | 78,423,000 |
d7773b1d880d26281da5f9cfaa9da9e80383a536 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xd65ce73b996c09b6ecedd1cbfefe83e213a1fd81510e2bd2152bec79ee13a392 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 5... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on October 31? | 78,423,000 | 78,423,000 |
ca44857574a570aac6b1150d065722f7525d8ca6 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x6879a32ba117d2bb84f60b9ba63ba6f59ac3e244331a85198f1562f14c15e5dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-5-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Solana be less than $140 on October 31? | 78,423,001 | 78,423,001 |
ad7132d763736a42318bc121064c648c86e700f5 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xc424f5d9bbded9fd25785d1b53009bc99c29f60874b2a5e0cdfa5aba5fd9d39a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-5-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-18-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Octob... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of XRP be less than $2.00 on October 31? | 78,423,001 | 78,423,001 |
be29bcd16b0265c8b70f055babd6e4a901371cd2 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xfb6717befc0ec8bb8389512c3739b5e4bca290f2a8a908e894cadb5a3785d9ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-18-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-20-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on October 2... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-october-452 | Will Solana reach $350 in October? | 78,440,704 | 78,440,704 |
f4c08a7a9966176d92ffe09705f11a5fa21b4841 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x5916bb83d8de8d3ab5a25611ce40b89a89227515a1f6c99fa40b04549ca5a8fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-20-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on October 23? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-october-23 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20833333333333334
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-october-167 | Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? | 78,440,705 | 78,440,705 |
5a2824e4e7e798862b865644ee48dc09872d47a2 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x5b8afc648ba0f35fa12b2d320b9309b0af57a4903630d264413ce6d8f5e4d166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on October 23? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-october-23 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20833333333333334
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-october-452 | Will Solana dip to $120 in October? | 78,440,705 | 78,440,705 |
b2dd826867a7617f8b059be45e09163bc86f3987 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x6b4e4c846083e2c8a575811cee5027839103300fdeffac2594bf11fc520d9f01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on October 28? | Event: solana-price-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-october-167 | Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? | 78,440,705 | 78,440,705 |
6b18ba22712edecf8d8071df6b26ed60a4fde941 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x9558264fb7fee27cbe3dd3dc65cdcfb8544d0248dd001031416657909708c022 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on October 28? | Event: solana-price-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on October 28? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-october-167 | Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? | 78,440,705 | 78,440,705 |
13c30659c14fa507d78e1e1da1ea5158924535c8 | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0xa1824a5cfdb7cd38876e2127fda3ca829a0ab2074ad30167e586355cbb714df1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on October 28? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on October 29? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-october-167 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | 78,440,705 | 78,440,705 |
7bdcbb2e0884262cabb812e50972def0f69f9deb | 0x00ee3b6011fe1bf274ba09549effd20fcba01128 | 0x5e4ed30449eeb5cf9751e4354f663c2af59d3e3574dd4bc901437961a01b426c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on October 29? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on October 29? | Event: solana-price-on-october-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-october | Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? | 78,440,706 | 78,440,706 |
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