sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61ad32c3f052155b151f99c3c1313abe401e348e | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x197e52016126cccca59fd9f30ec9bbaf4e74627b2c6ff9e442898396bd19fca1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0.917526 | when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | SEC to NOT approve spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan 10? | 52,259,711 | 52,259,711 |
1c809ec9fa9d295ba4c92186675ccb47f62673cc | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x69da08bcf7ced9153d508349a70780af3e4ae17fe6126ed535b388d38ed7d21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl LVIII? | 52,259,734 | 52,259,734 |
dbce9347be2596e60268f116e4653a7c8ab091cc | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xaf7f7f661e165ab216d61c285d746c48ebfd965776f5164dfaf5caa193056fd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl LVIII? | 52,259,749 | 52,259,749 |
24bfc299d1bc9cf831207aec8e56650b9ba59b55 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x6992937180cb705aeece09c558546026eb991dca57429c42f54504232091d126 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl LVIII? | 52,259,811 | 52,259,811 |
7a18ef32e26204f117400075d8cd328964481e29 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x8204779ca8584f1349ddaaed68b63b8509fb3d1deab321180288e48b2961232a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | Bitcoin ETF doesn't get approval by Jan 15? | 52,259,840 | 52,259,840 |
71ae84de8d999be39ddda43f5626da02e2ac4246 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xf0d406fbfdc84019185fa1a96f63bc539ea33c66537f9cdb21878ddf7f3056e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | cowboys | 0 | nfl-dailies-2024-01-14 | Cowboys vs. Packers | 52,325,574 | 52,325,574 |
003cb12498245cb928343f4d91e27be77b21f4ed | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x166ad5a3914c4dfaf4e8eb851f167c04797f2abbb3427ddf688c363d1c68fe6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 10-12.5% | 53,311,723 | 53,311,723 |
a3476207996bdc49f7f5fa64dc824b52625b4b69 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x8f41b19c9df3d15bbc3343c2c5eb9281ad8f60828cb2253f52104aaceebb40d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0.193842 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will DeSantis place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 53,311,723 | 53,311,723 |
06107a224bdc12e2e3e515f7ffe571738fee3449 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 55,077,656 | 55,077,656 |
ad1545a61a48f5ffade41e287817be012568f4f9 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xd7b81793137d5dd6843a40e774fb25395361a4375b885784ff747520958b93d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0 | congress-passes-bill-banning-tiktok-by-april-30 | Congress passes bill banning TikTok by April 30? | 56,056,498 | 56,159,774 |
6afd0b6112bef59e7c661ba198b5ae436077d712 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x2947e01438abca09a05b9f34e74e7e2d193f4b0ddb19801b30a7b01cee91f7ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 0.00294 | first-cat-to-1b | Will MEW reach $1b first? | 56,847,763 | 63,693,787 |
aa7f54bdc77791f56c1708b2b10938c9618150ed | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 0.176471 | first-cat-to-1b | Will another cat memecoin reach $1b first? | 56,847,789 | 57,868,998 |
0bb64e47bcf2f8b99505353c9185b9e75bb7a78a | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x1abea748e8ef490de4fb3d1102b3aa8e6a5bdc99c8851c92bb725a374e88d855 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 1 | of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 50 and 74 times? | 57,094,260 | 57,094,260 |
af82e9cf1faac529d5e675ff293e0e6852d98e7e | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x210282781c4e15ad6ed529aa2f2abeb09450262a95e82bccab616062392fc65b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0 | of-elon-musk-tweets-between-may-10-and-may-17 | Will Elon tweet 60-74 times? | 57,094,260 | 57,094,260 |
a6e06096e7aa0fd29000edb0526699bc818843b6 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x25ee65945ec1880c6c62eea7bcd33512d6de23f05ec9a555db332a931a74d22d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | 57,094,260 | 57,094,260 |
73d2d1e072ee0637f6431d8196abf9752d940505 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x4fc8f17cd400deaee0fc9eb724a4aa689ce9716e8ac0f829d6cd7bbc266c09fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 25 and 49 times? | 57,094,260 | 57,094,260 |
a5ff6220f23b1ec455ba9c7b36e25407deae84c2 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x65d172ef296761643c3a3f8fc4f20f8844f1950e066f6314b20527317d84d1de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Will Roaring Kitty tweet less than 25 times? | 57,094,260 | 57,094,260 |
620924670470c7803cbb91161ebc58273393adb1 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0x4fdc8c72f3013001dccc152e318cb3fcb16da16c741816c3078a42947702ece5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 1 | ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31 | Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | 57,199,817 | 57,199,817 |
21498cd242897fd92ab637c0c0cb29a1e6521ae6 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xe610902a9cbe5a4969466a5b853f9165fa071b9804aa7f71db768db5c757b96b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.5506500890361465e-06
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Ev... | no | 0.000051 | will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024 | Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? | 57,255,550 | 57,255,550 |
ba96b157c734891a6e83c13b7db902ebe417ec41 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xb26fd99a7b7bae4e13c9bb3becf65353708a805f9c1aea74484d107e6ba512cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Event: which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election | Choice: democratic | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.3% from October to November 2022? | Event: what-will-us-inflation-be... | no | 0.061171 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Biden wins the Popular Vote? | 57,373,601 | 57,868,769 |
934308b82857d995bfcaebc6fca386fd83907983 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xa964f2865c241ddf0f15ada5656b2b6858daf2fdc0a54c530e269c56e375d200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.3% from October to November 2022? | Event: what-will-us-inflation-be-from-october-to-november-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | Event: will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-presidential-el... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 57,380,824 | 57,380,824 |
432d16957002ff7a9171ff17f761cde1371159b7 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xfa5d43be36255764600be8bf2a29f288e6c8963c121df8400ddfe6bcbc744700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | Event: will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Balaji Bet: BTC > $1m USD on June 17? | Event: balaji-bet-btc-1m-usd-on-june-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 57,390,201 | 57,548,498 |
4ca69b3adc95596b56f03993a580d831ac77c153 | 0x005dcb2c539eb682f14b7441863c298904d108bd | 0xf83c9d579881ab305a2c546d388aaead5da3d0245e57b40f2338515b59df80b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Balaji Bet: BTC > $1m USD on June 17? | Event: balaji-bet-btc-1m-usd-on-june-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2023? | Event: will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Is the Room-... | no | 0 | mangers-sacked-in-may | Erik ten Hag out as Manchester United manager? | 57,424,730 | 57,424,730 |
0d78d58bf13e11797ecf4cbf0cbdd0b7919ca382 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x5279dbd8b32433e98585cbebc266172d614d74e17a27a2da91ec6681f12ba2dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?
Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | 69,434,064 | 69,434,064 |
758650accfddf98b2f4b47bd208b2411bfaf11ee | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x3f8f92e081151484ec03524f84f39e8b536872fe5fa3ea47935fbf2bbdfb8219 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July?
Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july
Predict the user's choice and confidence... | no | 0 | will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | 69,974,133 | 69,974,133 |
4a5c1f51dad82ea8deb063e35f48975c939f5f6a | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x7d1673f133fe70f1807a338834f1506c8e9a88894f573635b10b92927bed73d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11? | 70,183,941 | 70,183,941 |
5c6da53a40903862d2b6e199092501ee4345e777 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x58f5385b1e4597259fa1c0b38239032700a1b53c324caaf6655c0256e5798a4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 16? | 70,403,628 | 70,403,628 |
e718045b1332227517d80c2c86d6e0938c159bcd | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x1e91f453015093ccca2ce4d91e40c2d76a0180fe098a3ccdac67d42a58948952 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on April 17? | 70,448,690 | 70,448,690 |
819b20cfaaa673ac511dc8f36e93204b984a621a | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x37e6c1227c1ee562cbd906099dadbd658ddca8cdb9730736857b4d82701c6393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | next-chancellor-of-germany | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | 71,255,981 | 71,255,981 |
881bc13933003b585974c32637033151327dc163 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x8cb4934ebf44f37a8f596532535ea9c3dcbeacbb56cc89569200678c1adeead7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or below on May 16? | 71,623,010 | 71,623,010 |
1235c59bedfc531bc3f4b45bf52775b65128122e | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x1282ca332838ce20dbeb0fd0c1ec343d7ad9122c89f460d760cefb905ef695b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64–65°F on May 17? | 71,664,633 | 71,664,633 |
8f6f98c20179e0b53e33d17bd2ba2030000ce95c | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x417d77856ad8874e8b5a01627d541347e3f399242a60504de589aea92f9a20f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 20? | 71,783,860 | 71,783,860 |
ac55aa78a472aa97a5b5baf8ef56626f1a2d866f | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0xc6a7e0d19fd0b2754ba25466804341ce64e93c33cbfaf53887d872fdade0f221 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on May 20? | 71,783,860 | 71,783,860 |
cd7fa8daa9faebbb7f3827a5c99faa6354366ae9 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0xaa480d869c48fbeb26d6565ce48c60adb907c0d457e24070ea97fceaeec539af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58–59°F on May 21? | 71,799,844 | 71,799,844 |
3446b8a6696586dc515a7a378701bc91cba5129e | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0xe546c01fefe137d8ea365f6ace819ca95a62e1d7d39f43cc816f67e87ab501ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 21? | 71,799,849 | 71,799,849 |
bae97fae510ea89364bdadfad07c42cde27fa3e8 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x57f9d9476c24d0f81cf10e7c3e2e9dcaceadc3f2e35ce5524ae3e09f7c995409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60–61°F on May 21? | 71,821,466 | 71,821,466 |
dc046c5de2cfedeacda72a2bb560dd9dd02312b5 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x0a4f788a55ba3ceecb7c8455c6ce76e705005dfd6a1b015e233a77193e90b668 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64–65°F on May 21? | 71,821,528 | 71,821,528 |
f8812900a02af79967a3780ac657dd87b61a31b6 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x62d9525cb09d4a6c15ca3ad4ca44e1ffc314fa4402ed6813e44d91d1dfa64401 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 23? | 71,903,274 | 71,903,274 |
c66a3107ed20bca80183ed6e5e73b67c95d4cb02 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x4c8dd504954783d21a43e2fd38a9c62868982b886b032c5be8ccc7b82bc980a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-4 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 4? | 72,386,531 | 72,386,531 |
927c97c2aff900cc613ff4d27be2b5bb346a7f1d | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x6ae84bf6a8ec2655d5429cf4577ae95c099a95dd20af4a187e34bd0be72622f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on June 8? | 72,529,658 | 72,529,658 |
18f4801f744b94948fe731eac01997ea1621b93f | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0xc94b71a44609761f41313e178db8e5efddca98abc5898b4deddd08d8da7c0595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on June 8? | 72,556,952 | 72,556,952 |
65eee9ede896e1e525fa607783d2c49c95f6a55c | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x551a4ba8e0ff9e3c06e50ba02b9380fdc768c1a041de4f407e4e4fa3e52f79b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on June 15? | 72,836,046 | 72,836,046 |
57425075aed2d9f5da05b574d2bc6282aefe0fdc | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x62a479d152ffb88b969e0b71e7a88e8778e140d5ef94f9d69177e022c3b71220 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 15? | 72,836,046 | 72,836,046 |
56fd1861a8e40560a586f2031b4d095de72cb146 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x99d5ba8865025624805cec6ca1d99616c22d2875ad8b073b8a12d7a59247cc18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 15? | 72,836,046 | 72,836,046 |
50d8dfb5932331877a771dd0cd665a2b29104784 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0xf920fa0f58a05c45f169f5c0203a767b2d519a531d8a8d39910e2e1a63e2dc9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or below on June 18? | 72,935,731 | 72,935,731 |
6d4efd2dae35c1adf25293dca63f641cf9ff5f63 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0xff83fb4bc20737ce9d8d86e6cca7123f1563b6672be4f55d37f2d16e2dd473c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on June 20? | 73,037,897 | 73,037,897 |
e9240c01097feb7e91b18fdd3e69cc0c6796a6a6 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x1b2aaa67a9c0a9520bfe5d646dbb0427753eba49517122f1331f2c14f9949d15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | i-know-what-you-did-last-summer-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12-14m? | 74,302,602 | 74,302,602 |
a464ac060a17565ffb2432060a91b7ec6d781162 | 0x009420f556d0daad38c3893b7cc4a43d3bbaa481 | 0x40f37c1ce58cc2ccce69e159d65d879fc16a02d6cd36eabc23003a6bec74eb74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Event: magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV before July? | Event: will-fartcoin-hit-1b-fdv-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | no | 1 | i-know-what-you-did-last-summer-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14-16m? | 74,302,602 | 74,302,602 |
49aa096becf23e8b685fb955768ef3fa0fdfe714 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x25e7636133d05bd4627cdde231cfc22c68a50daf61b82030e8233c3a69303db3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29?
Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | 72,161,204 | 72,161,204 |
ef07047c29af119ca203f4f98480d30b5e2d0286 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x75597060074142e8b8e9ab8d578a6efebb67b4007bdc04f23e3740ff34d9d113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday?
Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday
Predict the user's choice and... | no | 1 | how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | 72,161,204 | 72,161,204 |
84b61cbfebc133e468dfedba16aab9901894f1dd | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x7dd158722d1566f7ca51e931f60e4038053c9c20d54aafc2d8245ea5fb55a353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target ma... | no | 1 | 2025-indy-500-winner | Will Rinus Veekay win the Indy 500? | 72,161,204 | 72,161,204 |
5299dee2aae4877137affd71bad66378f67e3c3a | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x86808200660a470730488548f32df6b489bd4bd447323f43cd057716951d0c04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | crunchyroll-best-isekai | Will ‘That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime Season 3’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | 72,161,204 | 72,161,204 |
505ae83eddd140beec8807b4a9528bd9b926c177 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x86f4866ca23b0a401fd02a0dc011fe8fe5f191a0be501bff7cccb7cdd0497406 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | crunchyroll-best-isekai | Will ‘KONOSUBA -God’s Blessing on This Wonderful World! 3’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | 72,161,204 | 72,161,204 |
bf1f5e17ed94b1945bee372c62383f16bafe755c | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x9322412f5b711f7d6c19791d996263cf1993b3db15524d896a71590b7ec449d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-26-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? | 72,161,204 | 72,161,204 |
ac52026b2ad9229f0b07f5b88105b40c20c636dd | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xb82f096ab0c9803e3855f92fecc6ac7ebfce7fb8ce7edcc4b4aef3cf89eb4329 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | cs2-iem-dallas | Will Aurora win the IEM Dallas tournament? | 72,161,204 | 72,161,204 |
b3ceaf3d000e1023814b75a67d2e905154c079ba | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xd75fa2b808c253875c949bed24f6e3e6b9b642bcc849a967e9a6ec1733c7a851 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 27? | 72,161,204 | 72,161,204 |
4deec69db70be22e5b40152c13c0eb7cba83b1cc | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xfc0d4ca8b4a8550d84267d3460d508101e6de4bbd4ff8cf473d7d0db85419bed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-25-719 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or below on May 25? | 72,161,204 | 72,161,204 |
81bad12866937d02541edf3e7a862814a5085186 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x16194fb8cc93c802541725f42577ad59c5ec62acc216eabfd052e647e8b42004 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Will 'Jellyfish Can’t Swim in the Night' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | 72,161,205 | 72,161,205 |
b88331b24cfb3b1e2beea3e7149e5541f5cdd6fe | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x3154683487d2fef1b8d61d1692412bab091de749c49e7842ee96f15c66eef0bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner-w | Will Ons Jabeur win the 2025 French Open? | 72,161,205 | 72,161,205 |
58bb4f28f73cd142b6c82bec077180c8ca05fa5f | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xbb79148bd0d261135aa9632501708d674c7b63da601ba6f19fd195d451e5f2f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-23-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on May 23 at 5 PM ET? | 72,161,205 | 72,161,205 |
757550050fd00fb2c9efb43a9f3a95ac4ed292ff | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xce8bb4a98aba032780c755cc5b3cffb3e51d773b9b2ec358aeb86040b782fe17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner-w | Will Diana Shnaider win the 2025 French Open? | 72,161,205 | 72,161,205 |
d873b2b9ef9528e73d30ddd23fdfc07a2cb21f10 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xd13837dc08d7f6fe57f2d8dfff5ae761af3013edd5e3554832733629e7f56745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859 | Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 84? | 72,161,205 | 72,161,205 |
e7b454d74d2c267e63b1440b2214811dd2743959 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xe36402038296e60c7c8ddcedf2845bcf3dde33e5f4782e17ef90c6a9f7a7d67c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Will 'Metallic Rouge' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | 72,161,205 | 72,161,205 |
5b3eb3e63279c96626843a75667536b31e4db9d2 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x0bbe9bf606a01129ff3d9b599d3c83aa28b28c27561b72c455a49883b1fbaff0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | nba-western-conference-champion | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? | 72,161,206 | 72,161,206 |
251d201cf8f057099edf4bf83a040fa09f61bf3c | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x57cb627c154489cb13e71b982a4dba0231a1d88585951f8fbb93560844e347c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions? | 72,161,206 | 72,161,206 |
c128f8c7629fcb172ba06c663fbc0b94dc91ed46 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xc787dbd3aa8f972db91e04022900a37a96171fe54f8ceed721e35924066274ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 2025-iihf-world-championship-544 | Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? | 72,161,206 | 72,161,206 |
989fd639e87fc53b189e9508e0737aab3f552995 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xf999ea22dd5db9832f79cd9e51c1bbd1167932c1ec6471ccb04bfed10b8b6020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | nhl-western-conference-champion | Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? | 72,161,206 | 72,161,206 |
855b92eed4372a2292503d51615936f22b462c5b | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x1ea37b8c3828ff55d207cd931af1d689c5044f352c3f6a3311a07ca03571e5a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 29? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
14c6de027a922f1bf6c7b4d241ffae004496a4e2 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x200cc76eaa89687b62857b4de5d83687c13e992ed27e9fdcb64bcb5fb2d5ccc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76–77°F on May 27? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
b96fa4a17c70dcd3115c961889a3b831d651eb59 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x25a3a5064f38eb75d95fd54284516efa0387f5adf8eb020a87f5c4729847daac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73–74°F on May 26? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
13c097f8d54ba95e4cf73d929490a09eafc01221 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x30f6be2f27e0a4b96c3e9c9bda2dde5079fdb4a8cee201be2b1239e9ba970ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
98648ac9bbdc7b3818b1a13aba00c5e47465b499 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x3d64ce9caf3dcf36a8958344f68af82aedfd8b63d1c9e7ea3db17bc3e830c400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
98460840ad400238b84c57d96db6707a2a864c15 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x3f2394e559f7941e8fe3e56ab622332592ce7214252cee08ba2400258c80f80e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | nba-western-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score the most total points in the NBA Western Conference Finals? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
6ff9093f5edbe69f7c80d8b2871b563af8287792 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x49429b69456c71b3cf4d127c87b3d81e2fa76fed3a3458dc34e6f8dcd767afe7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | will-john-mulaney-actually-fight-children | Will John Mulaney actually fight children? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
f312e255c78cb7b184484265e55bc33790c2b4bb | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x62c1e3b4c8ffdb2061aaf867a8a2163b3eeeeae149739e210c04747b740c5b42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 26? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
f8a9c8c686fc4088b07671980cc489e03ab4c4c0 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x80bd6c8d13efeab75dc5522adbf0d0b53cdb6de17ba0fc277f91304dfd49453b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-24-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 24 at 5 PM ET? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
0bc8fd1725c88f389bfa737f81781061a2df55a6 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xa396101062e699bfa8622fda0185729b1dfca18cb12ef5362f5843cff58d5d77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-28-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
4a81462537c07ac5b1492b95fc0c4fcb2a21fa37 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xbb0f16a89c111199d1f9446238d40b9ed53e71020cf890f097ece2d5e7d29174 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
5f449ce491904293f7c3f81ea0a959044af562c3 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xea56e095d86aa2a8f7486ab23b1f6dc1f31635b9d116b9b2351d5ac617509599 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or higher on May 29? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
e8695b7b808e8bc41150866029d87c3391b4fc7e | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xef18479513dd77b478cadb272e5c4864c7ae700422113ec686d3ade7f8f46ed7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 10 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rinus Veekay win the Indy 500? | Event: 2025-indy-500-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ‘That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime Season 3’ w... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-26-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
2839e317b015ed67ed9cd1acacaeba11375c8e3a | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xf11f91bfcd17a78b4fbfde9f4d3e9cd73ef0074e590a72830a5f4cddbce5ead8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rinus Veekay win the Indy 500? | Event: 2025-indy-500-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime Season 3’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-isekai | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | survivor-48-winner | Will Kyle Fraser win Survivor 48? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
f84fb8ce73babcf09182778bafdca096602bde7b | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xf166417f89bd619192975c9fa76c1f8fb40f622b9925a4f1448d4788cbe4644a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ‘That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime Season 3’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-isekai | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘KONOSUBA -God’s Blessing on This Wonderful World! 3’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: ... | no | 1 | 2025-bitpanda-hamburg-open-winner-m | Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 Bitpanda Hamburg Open? | 72,161,208 | 72,161,208 |
81cf8d1fe6767b4b5e6bbd5aa5eb79c171814690 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x558e8f79a2c5cfa266a8494d024e6f55b244d3047c7e3fe3320c192821c024d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ‘KONOSUBA -God’s Blessing on This Wonderful World! 3’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-isekai | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-26-5pm-et... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-25-719 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 25? | 72,161,209 | 72,161,209 |
477a64693d9c0c08f282faa1130c448a834f1fd0 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x313f680b4eacd5d5d9b95aecee48e0e1f54261d32f68fbcdda12aa816e534e79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-26-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aurora win the IEM Dallas tournament? | Event: cs2-iem-dallas | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperatu... | no | 1 | liberal-party-of-vote-in-canada-election | Will the Liberal Party win between 41% and 44% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election? | 72,275,717 | 72,275,717 |
8c17f2cbe0ac408621c47879ee9696e29557ab7d | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x4c7bed44ff1e71666f99cafe360423e175d7a8cc41c89628de5c7b89abb1e4fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aurora win the IEM Dallas tournament? | Event: cs2-iem-dallas | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest tempe... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,275,717 | 72,275,717 |
63424019f537c9b1aaedb85cefd83d1be3538e96 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x4ccfb4945a34f39043144dfc2ac0ac340228aa6cd62d348357115c060f5a6580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or below on May 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-25-719 | Choice:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? | 72,275,717 | 72,275,717 |
1f7d2b8846e3cd17f7e3a660a429ab097bfe7911 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x5afab7decd9695406d6860bcfd6b9fdf2035f1a05c09b7a0aa683b712fca3592 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or below on May 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-25-719 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Jellyfish Can’t Swim in the Night' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-orig... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-may-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on May 31? | 72,275,717 | 72,275,717 |
d74295b7ac3d9a79a19113205088d437c5a39be2 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x993f880d5f0c8f03bab6bfc03fe01bb2569ee5a159bca9aef09dde90e9274ff0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Jellyfish Can’t Swim in the Night' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ons Jabeur win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner-w | Will Elena Rybakina win the 2025 French Open? | 72,275,717 | 72,275,717 |
c29d87c94bba5299f155884c9d8c653bf8f1b4fe | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0xfb587576831629bca4754b77e6f22b6b357bd736574b160dbdf4d2b1b42690a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ons Jabeur win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on May 23 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-23-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Diana Shnaider... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-dubai-on-may-31 | Will the highest temperature in Dubai be between 101-102°F on May 31? | 72,275,717 | 72,275,717 |
739397bb959521ec0ba55509e88021f3dea0ffff | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x4bf115e0a41070d5198d84d1b97abd476a1059f5c52d635eee8a16a92a8b441e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on May 23 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-23-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Diana Shnaider win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Mission: ... | trzaskowski | 1 | polish-presidential-elections-regions | Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Wielkopolskie? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
0078cf7d2b3d50afbe3f1e0a01cbc85baef3ba5c | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x588b0ed71307416d2838b1c46928663c9bb2ece2093ba5d32e8f99bc70a6441c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Diana Shnaider win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 84? | Event: mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859 |... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
9c3197adab62c1dfdcf09be23ce6d45cab10c97e | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x5b8e32e1fbc08f9e7ab47d24593e67b950d95c13899a79a92921bfc106d0d7e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 84? | Event: mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Metallic Rouge' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | Even... | no | 1 | nba-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
82bb6bf1aeca3ca745bede62606a5ce2c24a0a37 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x5c08a370c12f99758788dd1e27401170a6a757f2dafff082fa4654f2ccbdc459 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Metallic Rouge' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 30? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
449a271c2fa6a05eddec9c3c74e7af083e63894f | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions? | Event: nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
48e591a10e5b15b877f644a5e7751ce00fe1494b | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x69385fd63a5091b0928789296bc32df8069babea8af3fbc1804d656e0c26d819 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions? | Event: nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? | Event: 2025-iihf-world-championship-544 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-30 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on May 30? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
b78059e18dbc1cb5dabf1c43f482c76238150aa8 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x6cf8b2ebe77711ab5c32fac330b8d493640cf25d278fa98bf65ddcfcb891171e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? | Event: 2025-iihf-world-championship-544 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? | Event: nhl-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hig... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
e23affe93888d477d687a57984fcb84c234afa80 | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x6d2f4940373a13567e53de6fd2015186c298249329a5f03771a6b160f5e4a7d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? | Event: nhl-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
be51c40476666b0ae0823c6ff49e14db3db6d70b | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x753ff59a0f7fddf21a33af6a4d4f50cce2cafe5e7baab387a6ea996ec1802ca6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76–77°F on May 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-27 |... | no | 1 | giro-ditalia-2025-winner | Will Simon Yates win the Giro d’Italia 2025? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
b85d1babbcca32a647e56c65f3083d38561b7cca | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x902e518669375979ea4480397ba36feeb4f1110417ffc149c6c30f75385840d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76–77°F on May 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73–74°F on May 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-26 | Cho... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
6819c85c1ed7b6019480df605644f3ee29274d9c | 0x00c0b7e26a54958c0a82e61eb87525e06cb8c91e | 0x9ff92ba4e9f141866343c632fac573fd0ef3c06a244bc0cf53c87eaecec0a4cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73–74°F on May 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend? | Event: mission-impossible-the-final-r... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30? | 72,275,719 | 72,275,719 |
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